X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Barrel Rate and Contact Rate, Who Can Do Both?

Hitting is, at the same time, completely simple and enormously complex. Hitting in the Major Leagues is arguably the most challenging thing to do in all of sports.

I don't think I need to explain myself for saying that hitting is complex. I can't do it, probably neither can you. The reason I say it's simple is that the goal of hitting is very simple.  You want to hit the ball often and hit the ball hard.

We measure how Major League hitters are doing at this task every day. The two main ways of doing this are contact rate and barrel rate. Contact rate is the percent of the time a hitter makes contact (fair or foul) when they swing. Barrel rate is a little harder to define, but it is the percent of total batted balls (in play) that are hit at 97+ mph at an optimal angle range (this angle range widens as the velocity climbs). Due to the nature of it, these two statistics are correlated. You need to swing awful hard to achieve a barrel, and the harder hitters swing, the less frequently they make contact. Here's proof.

Featured Promo: Get any MLB Premium Pass FREE ($119 value) AND up to a $200 deposit match when you sign up with Rival Fantasy. Rival offers 6 and 12-team Best Ball, weekly and daily contests, for as little as $3 per entry. No roster management, just draft and Rival sets your best lineup automatically. Playing fantasy baseball has never been easier! Sign Up Today!

 

The Barrel - Contact Correlation

What you see there is every hitter (150+ PA's) plotted by their contact rate (y-axis) and barrel rate (x-axis). The trend line shows the relationship. As hitters make contact more frequently, they also barrel the ball at lower rates. The reason for this is twofold

  1. You have less control of the bat when moving it quickly
  2. A harder swing gets the bat through the strike zone quicker, making it less likely to be timed up with when the ball is arriving

The mark of an elite hitter is to have a high contact rate and barrel rate. Very few hitters can do this. You can hover over the dots above to see which hitter they all represent. The names furthest closet to the very top right of the plot would be the best hitters. In this case, those names are Max Muncy, Yordan Alvarez, Ronald Acuna, Josh Donaldson, and Jose Ramirez, among others. You can download the data yourself and check it out by clicking "Get the data" in the visual.

 

Finding Capable Hitters

What I wanted to do is to look at each player at a more granular level and see the kind of contact rate and barrel rate duos they've been able to post this year. The way I went about this is as follows.

For each qualified hitter (more than 500 pitches seen, that's around 100 PA's), I looked at each span of 50 plate appearances they've had and retrieved their contact rate and barrel rate for that span of 50 plate appearances, and then converted those stats into percentiles. Note that for a hitter with 300 plate appearances, I did not just look at plate appearance numbers 0-50, 50-100, 100-150, etc. I looked at every single span of 50. That means I looked at PA's 1-50, and then 2-51, and then 3-52, all the way up their most recent plate appearance.

Here's a data visualization of Mookie Betts to help us understand what we're doing here. Remember we're looking at percentiles here, not actual values.

 


To interpret this, for Betts' first 50 appearances, he had a contact rate of 81.5% (which is 73rd percentile which is where it's plotted) and a barrel rate of 5.6%, which 33rd percentile. Betts' best span of 50 PA's numbered 236-286, where he posted an 87% contact rate and a 12% barrel rate, good for 92nd and 72nd percentiles respectively. This is displayed above 236 on the x-axis on that plot.

Now that we understand the process a bit, we'll move on.

 

90th Percentile or Better

I wanted to find which hitters (if any) have had stretches where they found themselves in the 90th percentile or better (meaning that 90% or more of the league's hitters were beneath them) in both categories.

Turns out that seven hitters have accomplished this feat. They are, in order of how many 50-PA segments they achieved it in: Max Muncy (25), Jake Cronenworth (24), Kyle Tucker (11), Paul Goldschmidt (6), Ronald Acuna (6), Matt Olson (1), Pete Alonso (1).

The standouts are Muncy and Cronenworth, here are both of their graphs:

 

Muncy has been barreling the ball at an elite level all season long, but it had come with a putrid contact rate early on in the season. You can see that from about plate appearance number 140 to number 230, he was doing nearly impossible things with a top-of-the-league barrel rate along with a top-of-the-league contact rate.

Cronenworth's graph looks much different:

 

Early on he looked like a slap hitter that makes a ton of contact but doesn't hit for much power. Then in late May and June, he really started barreling the ball, achieving a top 10 percent barrel rate for a good stretch there. Recently his barrel rate has fallen to zero, as his last barrel was on June 25th.

Tucker is third place there, although only being above the 90th percentile in both for a very brief time. It's still quite impressive to even have the skills to do this, however, so I would be investing heavily into all of these players.

 

85th Percentile or Better

If we open up the criteria a bit, here are all of the names that have had 50 plate appearance samples being in the top 15% of all hitters in both contact rate and barrel rate (alphabetical):

Andrew McCutchen, Andrew Vaughn, Brandon Belt, Carlos Correa, Cedric Mullins II, Chad Pinder, Freddie Freeman, Garrett Cooper, Jake Cronenworth, Jesse Winker, Jorge Polanco, Jose Ramirez, Josh Donaldson, Kyle Tucker, Luis Urias, Manny Machado, Mark Canha, Matt Olson, Max Muncy, Mitch Haniger, Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt, Pavin Smith, Pete Alonso, Ronald Acuna Jr., Travis Shaw, Ty France, Will Smith, Yermin Mercedes, Yordan Alvarez

The names that I think are the best values (in terms of how much I believe in them & how much they cost currently): Vaughn, Belt, Cooper, Donaldson, Urias, France

I think Vaughn is in for a really great second half, and I would be looking to acquire him everywhere. Cooper and Belt are guys that might be available on waivers and should provide a nice floor for you even while I think their ceilings may be a bit limited. Donaldson might be tougher to pull the trigger on given his injury and playing time issues, but he's a good guy to have on your team if you can get him cheap enough. And then we have Urias and France, both of whom are bursting with upside as highly-touted prospects that have shown really great signs this year. Go check your waiver wire!

For these types of post, I like to share my data at the very end. Unfortunately, I can't do that in this case because my resulting dataset was 67,545 rows long. If you have any questions or requests for data reports, as always please reach out to me on Twitter!



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Alec Burks18 mins ago

Questionable On Friday
Dean Wade34 mins ago

Won't Play Against 76ers
OG Anunoby1 hour ago

Ruled Out Again Friday
Nick Senzel9 hours ago

Expected To Miss 3-4 Weeks
Jon Gray9 hours ago

To Start On Sunday
Justin Steele10 hours ago

Likely To Go On Injured List
Anfernee Simons12 hours ago

Out Against The Heat
Max Kepler12 hours ago

X-Rays Come Back Negative On Max Kepler
Keldon Johnson12 hours ago

Questionable For Friday
Justin Steele12 hours ago

Has Left-Hamstring Tightness
Matisse Thybulle12 hours ago

Questionable For Friday
Davis Bertans12 hours ago

Listed As Probable For Friday
Jusuf Nurkic12 hours ago

Questionable Against Oklahoma City
Dario Saric12 hours ago

Listed As Questionable For Friday
Noah Clowney12 hours ago

Probable For Nets Friday
Jonathan Kuminga13 hours ago

Questionable For Warriors Friday
Jerami Grant13 hours ago

Considered Doubtful For Friday
Dennis Smith13 hours ago

Jr. Probable For Friday
Lauri Markkanen13 hours ago

Questionable Against Houston
Toumani Camara13 hours ago

Will Not Play Friday
Justin Steele13 hours ago

Exits Thursday's Start
Richaun Holmes13 hours ago

Out Versus Pistons
Cameron Johnson13 hours ago

Out Against Chicago On Friday
Luka Doncic13 hours ago

On The Injury Report For Friday
David Bednar13 hours ago

Still Dealing With Lat Injury
Deandre Ayton13 hours ago

Is Questionable For Friday
Rudy Gobert13 hours ago

Might Miss Friday's Game
Tyus Jones13 hours ago

Unavailable For Friday
Rhys McKee14 hours ago

Searching For First UFC Win
Chidi Njokuani14 hours ago

Drops Back Down To Welterweight At UFC Atlantic City
Kyle Nelson14 hours ago

An Underdog Again At UFC Atlantic City
Bill Algeo14 hours ago

Eyes Sixth UFC Win
Joaquin Buckley14 hours ago

Gets Ranked Opponent At UFC Atlantic City
Vicente Luque14 hours ago

Gets Short-Notice Opponent At UFC Atlantic City
Eduardo Rodriguez15 hours ago

Could Throw Off Mound In 5-7 Days
Max Kepler15 hours ago

Leaves On Opening Day With Injury
Nick Senzel15 hours ago

Suffers Broken Thumb
Jason Foley15 hours ago

Earns The Save For Tigers
Tarik Skubal16 hours ago

Tosses Six Scoreless Innings On Opening Day
Corbin Burnes16 hours ago

Pitches A Gem On Opening Day
Royce Lewis16 hours ago

Exits With Quad Injury
Max Scherzer18 hours ago

Throws Bullpen Session
Clayton Kershaw18 hours ago

"Ahead Of Things" Timetable-Wise
Walker Buehler18 hours ago

Ahead Of Schedule
Corey Seager18 hours ago

Active On Opening Day
Oneil Cruz18 hours ago

Batting Sixth On Opening Day
Bryan Reynolds20 hours ago

In Opening Day Lineup
Jordan Romano22 hours ago

Not Expected To Be Out Long
Aaron Ekblad23 hours ago

Returning To Panthers Lineup Thursday
Nikita Kucherov23 hours ago

Establishes New Career High With 42nd Goal
Shane Pinto23 hours ago

Collects Career-High Four Points
Valeri Nichushkin23 hours ago

Nursing A Lower-Body Injury
Samuel Girard23 hours ago

Battling An Illness
J.K. Dobbins23 hours ago

Visiting With Chargers On Thursday
Oskar Sundqvist23 hours ago

To Miss Rest Of Season With Torn ACL
Ethan Bear23 hours ago

Enters Player Assistance Program
Mark Hubbard2 days ago

Coming Off A Career Performance
Davis Thompson2 days ago

Looking To Pay Off A Stellar Run Of Ball-Striking
Akshay Bhatia2 days ago

Coming Into Houston With Confidence
Thorbjorn Olesen2 days ago

Still Trying To Find Footing On U.S. Soil
Patrick Rodgers2 days ago

Fighting Inconsistencies Heading Into Houston
Malik Nabers2 days ago

Shines At Pro Day
Carolina Panthers2 days ago

Jadeveon Clowney Signing Two-Year Deal With Panthers
Wyndham Clark2 days ago

Battling Back Injury Ahead of Houston Open
San Francisco 49ers2 days ago

Talanoa Hufanga Expected To Return At Training Camp
Jayden Daniels2 days ago

Raiders To Meet With Jayden Daniels
Tank Bigsby2 days ago

Jaguars Want Tank Bigsby More Involved
Josh Reynolds2 days ago

Signs Two-Year Deal With Broncos
Doug Ghim2 days ago

Looks To Bounce Back At Houston Open
PGA2 days ago

Cameron Davis Seeking Consistency Ahead Of Houston Open
Thomas Detry2 days ago

A Gamble At Houston Open
Ryan Fox2 days ago

Lacks Upside Heading Into Houston Open
Andrew Novak2 days ago

Will Be Chalk At Houston Open
Josh Doan2 days ago

Scores Twice In His NHL Debut
Filip Forsberg2 days ago

Makes History In Big Comeback Win
Jamie Benn2 days ago

Scores In Fifth Consecutive Game
Sidney Crosby2 days ago

Collects Three Points Versus Carolina
Artemi Panarin2 days ago

Continues Scoring Tear With Three Assists
Joey Daccord2 days ago

Shuts Out Ducks
Sahith Theegala2 days ago

Showing Consistency This Season
Wyndham Clark2 days ago

Working Toward Star Status
Scottie Scheffler2 days ago

Heads To Houston At His Best
Sam Ryder2 days ago

Putting The Lights Out Of Late
Joel Dahmen2 days ago

All Systems Go For Joel Dahmen In Houston
Kurt Kitayama2 days ago

Ready For Houston Debut
Ben Griffin2 days ago

Finding Form Heading To Houston
Taylor Moore2 days ago

Continues Made-Cut Streak Heading To Houston
Adam Svensson2 days ago

Hoping For Consistency In Houston
Taylor Montgomery2 days ago

Looks To Bounce Back In Houston
Amon-Ra St. Brown3 days ago

Discussing Extension With Lions
Jared Goff3 days ago

Lions Discussing New Deal
J.K. Dobbins3 days ago

Cleared For Football Activities
Los Angeles Rams3 days ago

Tre'Davious White To Join Rams
PIT3 days ago

Sam Poulin Recalled From AHL
Jack Quinn3 days ago

Could Return Wednesday
Scott Mayfield3 days ago

Undergoes Season-Ending Surgery
TOR3 days ago

Mitch Marner Skates On His Own Tuesday
Trevor Zegras3 days ago

To Return Tuesday
Justus Annunen3 days ago

Inks Two-Year Extension
Nick Chubb3 days ago

Expected To Start Load Running Next Month
D'Andre Swift3 days ago

Bears View D'Andre Swift As Receiving Weapon
Cordarrelle Patterson3 days ago

Signing With Steelers
Sam Howell3 days ago

Seahawks Believe Sam Howell Can Be A Full-Time Starter
Tennessee Titans3 days ago

L'Jarius Sneed Agrees On Four-Year Contract With Titans
Dak Prescott3 days ago

No Indication A Deal Is Coming For Dak Prescott
Calvin Ridley3 days ago

To Have Big Role In Tennessee
Josh Jacobs3 days ago

To Be Used More In Passing Game
Brandon Saad3 days ago

Gets Another Goal In Monday's Loss
Logan Thompson3 days ago

Stretches Winning Streak To Three Games
Pittsburgh Steelers4 days ago

Cameron Heyward Expected To Be Healthy For Training Camp
Zach Wilson4 days ago

Jets Could End Up Keeping Zach Wilson
Amanda Ribas4 days ago

Takes Decision Loss
Rose Namajunas4 days ago

Snaps Losing Streak
Edmen Shahbazyan4 days ago

Scores Vicious Comeback Knockout
AJ Dobson4 days ago

Knocked Out In The First Round At UFC Vegas 89
Fernando Padilla4 days ago

Gets Back On Track With Submission Win
Luis Pajuelo4 days ago

Submitted In UFC Debut
William Byron4 days ago

Dominates For Victory At COTA
Ty Gibbs4 days ago

Grabs Another Solid Finish At COTA
Chris Buescher4 days ago

Texas Native Chris Buescher Finishes Eighth At COTA
Christopher Bell4 days ago

Kyle Busch Confronts Christopher Bell Following A Top-10 Finish At COTA
Justin Haley4 days ago

Disqualified After Strong COTA Run
Martin Truex Jr4 days ago

. Rounds Out Top Ten At COTA
NASCAR4 days ago

A.J. Allmendinger Worms Way Up To Sixth At COTA
Shane Van Gisbergen4 days ago

Shane van Gisbergen Comes Down to Earth After Mediocre COTA Run
Ross Chastain4 days ago

Ran Well at COTA as Usual Despite Late-Race Fade
Christopher Bell4 days ago

Furious Charge Falls Just Short at COTA
Tyler Reddick4 days ago

Scores Strong Finish of Fifth at COTA
Chase Elliott4 days ago

Finishes 16th at COTA After Lackluster Performance
Billy Quarantillo5 days ago

Suffers Submission Loss At UFC Vegas 89
Youssef Zalal5 days ago

Gets Submission Win In Return To The UFC
Cameron Saaiman5 days ago

Gets Knocked Out At UFC Vegas 89
Payton Talbott5 days ago

Scores KO Win At UFC Vegas 89
Justin Tafa5 days ago

Drops To .500 In The UFC
Karl Williams5 days ago

Remains Undefeated In The UFC
Kyle Larson5 days ago

Is One Of The Optimal DFS Options For COTA
Denny Hamlin5 days ago

Should Denny Hamlin Be Rostered For DFS Lineups At COTA?
Kaz Grala5 days ago

Is A Serviceable DFS Play For COTA
Shane Van Gisbergen5 days ago

Will Start 12th In First COTA Cup Start
Todd Gilliland5 days ago

Is A Sneaky DFS Play With Upside For COTA
William Byron5 days ago

Is One Of The Top Favorites To Win At COTA
Christopher Bell5 days ago

Is A Comfortable DFS Play For COTA
Tyler Reddick5 days ago

the Favorite to Win at COTA
Ty Gibbs5 days ago

Looking for First Career Win at COTA
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF