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An Existential Crisis

The US is facing an existential crisis. On one hand, because of COVID-19, all of the scientific evidence is pointing to the need to shelter in place for an extended period of time. We have an alarming shortage of medical necessities including ventilators, masks and other devices. We need an unprecedented investment in our healthcare system. Science and public health need to be prioritized and respected.
 
On the other hand, there is the economy, and the desire for ever-increasing GDP, sales and stock prices. With the inability to carry on business as usual, corporations of all sizes are scared. Employees are without paychecks – and with that, health insurance and other benefits. Some economists are predicting that GDP this quarter will drop by as much as 50%. We need relief for those individuals who are going to be impacted the most and help to lessen their burden. Small businesses need to be supported as they typically have tighter budgets and resources available to them.
 
Without healthy workers, the economy will have trouble returning to its previous level of productivity. Part of the problem is that we have a reactionary versus proactive culture. We don’t treat people until after they’re sick – we focus on treating illness instead of preventing it. 
 
For years now, we have seen funding cut to the National Institutes of Health, National Science Foundation and other agencies whose mission is to advance science and health discoveries. While at the same time, we continue to massively fund the military for national security purposes. I would argue that funding NIH, NSF and other science-based agencies is as important to national security as defense spending. I believe the current situation would support this thesis.
 
The Coronavirus Stimulus Bill in Congress would take care of some of the issues we have – temporarily. It focuses on economic stimulus with secondary goal of healthcare and employee wellbeing (unemployment benefits, etc.).
 
However, I believe a shift needs to happen in our view of public health versus the economy. They are tied together. A healthy citizenry is a happier and more productive citizenry and this can only benefit the economy. The constant drive for growth has left our employees tired, unhealthy and scared.
 
Big business doesn’t need the help of government. US corporations are the most profitable in the history of the world. It is unacceptable to me when the big airlines ask Congress for a bailout when they spent billions of dollars of their potential reserves on share buybacks and executive compensation. Prudent financial planning for individuals calls for 3-6 months of “rainy day” fund for emergencies. It would be nice if big business did the same.
 
Instead of a $2 trillion stimulus package with only $150 billion going towards public health, perhaps we could see a much greater percentage going to the individuals who keep the economy running – and keeping them healthy. I applaud lawmakers for some aspects of the bill, including expanded unemployment benefits and limits on share buybacks for recipients of bailouts. Even more impressive, The Wall Street Journal reported that the bill “…bans businesses controlled by the president, vice president, members of Congress and heads of executive departments from receiving loans or other funds from the stimulus bill. Children and spouses of those people are also banned…” Read more about the bill here.
 
In order for us to get through this pandemic, we are going to have to prioritize public health over the economy – especially in the short term. If we rush back to work and the mall, we will see another spike in infections and have to go through this all over again. Let’s use this virus as an opportunity to shift our thinking and improve the health of everyone to make their life better and build a more sustainable economy.

Your Earth Equity Advisors' team meeting remotely on Monday morning.
On to business...
 
We have maintained our conservative stance in all of our diversified mutual fund portfolios. As more testing comes online across the country, we are probably going to see a spike in cases. Melissa and I drove to Duke Clinic yesterday for an appointment with my specialist. We expected to see reduced traffic on I-40. What we saw instead was almost as much traffic as there was before the pandemic. This does not bode well for a reduction in cases in the short term.
 
Based on our research, I believe that we have at least another 4-8 weeks of sheltering at home before we can begin to move about regularly. During that time, we will probably continue to see the markets maintain this high level of volatility. Despite some recent market gains, I expect to keep our portfolios on the conservative side until we begin to see a drop in the number of cases and deaths. We’re not trying to time the market, but instead are focusing on capital preservation. There will be adequate time for growth and capital appreciation once this is under control.
 
As always, thank you for your business, friendship and introductions. Please feel free to share my letters with your friends and family, and continue to write back with your comments – they are always appreciated by the Earth Equity team.

My Best,

Peter Krull
CEO & Director of Investments
Earth Equity Advisors, LLC
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