By Rohit Naimpally
This is one in a series of guides that will hopefully be helpful in demonstrating how to use Cleaning the Glass data to analyze players and teams. Whenever a specific stat is referenced, a video will demonstrate how to locate and parse out that number on cleaningtheglass.com/stats. Unless specified otherwise, all data is from Cleaning the Glass, and all stats were current through the end of the 2020-21 regular season.
Despite finishing the 2019-20 season on a tear in the bubble, the Phoenix Suns finished with a middling 34-39 record, -0.2 net rating, and missed the playoffs for a tenth straight season. In 2020-21, the Suns streaked across the league, finishing with the second best record (51-21) and the third best net rating (+6.2).
The obvious explanation for this turnaround is the Suns’ addition of Chris Paul in the 2020 offseason. Curiously, despite having the sixth best offense in the league, the Suns were nearly 2 points per 100 possessions worse on offense with Paul on the floor versus with Paul off. That stat does two things: it both illuminates the dangers of using single player plus minus numbers, absent context, and hints at the broader story behind the Suns’ success.
Let’s start with Paul’s impact on the Suns. Suns lineups with Paul outscored opponents by 6.6 points per 100, ranking in the 86th percentile of all lineups in the regular season with a minimum of 100 possessions played. Regardless of who the other four players on the floor were, the Suns outscored opponents with Paul on the floor. Paul is a master manipulator of the defense, creating open 3s and alley oops for teammates, or getting to his trademark mid-range jumper.
The Suns had an effective field goal percentage of 57% with Paul on the court, in the 88th percentile league-wide. Driven by Paul’s own mid-range proficiency and ability to open up looks for teammates in the corner and at the rim, the Suns shot well from most areas of the court.
On the other side of the court, the Suns held opponents to 110.3 points per 100 possessions with Paul on the court, equivalent to the fifth best regular season defense.
The Suns were clearly a formidable team with Chris Paul on the floor. So what explains their aforementioned negative point differential on offense with Paul on the floor versus off? Consider Suns lineups without Paul; those lineups still outscored opponents by a robust 5.4 points per 100 possessions in the regular season. The Suns starting lineup of Paul-Deandre Ayton-Devin Booker-Mikal Bridges-Jae Crowder outscored opponents by a tick over 5 points per 100. That same lineup with backup point guard Cameron Payne in place of Paul outscored opponents by nearly 16 points per 100 possessions, in the 82nd percentile of the league.
In the back half of the 2019-20 season, the Suns starting lineup typically included the Ayton-Booker-Bridges trio, along with then-starting point guard Ricky Rubio. Those lineups outscored opponents by 11 points per 100 on average (96th percentile league wide), a number that plummeted to -2.6 per 100 when Rubio sat, but the other three starters were on.
In other words, a big change for the Suns from the 2019-20 season to the 2020-21 season was being able to not just survive, but thrive in the minutes when their starting point guard sat. For instance, the Suns have been turnover-prone in the recent past, ranking near the bottom of the league in most of the previous six seasons.
The Suns ranked fourth in the league in 2020-21, a significant improvement. Some of this was no doubt due to the steadying influence of Paul, who has traditionally been one of the top guards at taking care of the ball. During his time with the Suns though, for the first time in his career, Paul’s team gave up fewer turnovers with him off the floor than with him on.
This is less due to any newfound profligacy on Paul’s part than because backups like Payne and Jevon Carter were just as careful.
There are a number of other factors one could also point to in explaining the Suns’ rise, from Deandre Ayton taking more attempts at the rim instead of long twos, to Mikal Bridges increasing his three point percentage from 36% to 43%. Add to that the Suns’ ability to not just win with Chris Paul, but to win without him as well.
Rohit Naimpally is the Innovation Team Lead at The People Lab, where he works on research to strengthen the public sector and the communities it serves. You can find his basketball writing at From The Logo, and can follow him on Twitter @rohitnaimpally.