There are two major species of coffee grown in the world, arabica and robusta. One has long been seen as the superior strain — why else would "100% Arabica" show up on so many bags of beans?

But the age of arabica may soon be in decline, as climate change forces the fickle plants off of farms.

Robusta beans — climate-resilient, more highly caffeinated but long derided by the industry as bitter and inferior tasting — are poised to take their place.

"In the specialty coffee industry, there's a lot more openness to the idea of robusta — there are significant challenges with arabica coffee with climate change in the future," said Miguel Meza, owner of Minneapolis-based Paradise Coffee Roasters, which has been roasting high-grade robusta for years. "This has to be part of our future."

Trend forecasting company WGSN says that transition has already begun. It picked robusta as one of the top food and beverage trends to take off in 2022 as robusta crops become more refined and better-tasting.

"When we look globally, we see signals of this being picked up, and more entrepreneurs are bringing that robusta crop into the United States," said Kara Nielsen, WGSN's director of food and drink. "We'll see interest in specialty robusta, then we may see some things in cans, then in another year at Starbucks — that's how these things trickle out."

Though it already accounts for 40% of the world's coffee production and is most commonly used in instant coffee, robusta remains relatively unknown among American coffee drinkers and has long been maligned by specialty roasters who prefer the nuanced flavors arabica provides.

"The bulk of the coffee-drinking public probably isn't aware of robusta, so it has the opportunity to be defined for the first time as a specialty coffee with its own characteristics," Nielsen said. "Over the longer term, we may see the larger coffee companies start introducing some of these robusta beans or blends."

Few roasters are sourcing and highlighting high-quality robusta beans the way they do arabica so far, as Nielsen said the shift is "just beginning."

Better for farmers?

Arabica is difficult to grow even in ideal conditions — and those conditions are found in fewer places on the planet each year.

By 2050 the amount of land suitable for growing arabica will be cut in half, researchers say, affecting the livelihoods of the 25 million producers who grow arabica. By 2100 Brazil could lose 95% of its arabica-growing land to climate change.

Robusta is more heat-tolerant and disease-resistant, Meza says, "and for a lot of producers presents a better option."

"The potential for genetic variety leads to much greater potential in terms of disease resistance, yield, adaptability and, potentially, cup quality," he said.

Premium arabica coffee has set a new bar for taste, which robusta needs some help reaching. The World Coffee Research nonprofit says "relatively little research has been undertaken to improve robusta cup quality; in general this indicates that there is high potential for improvement ... and change the underlying assumption that robusta coffees are necessarily lower quality."

In 2019 the Coffee Quality Institute released a new guide for "fine robusta standards and protocols" and said that robusta production could one day outpace arabica.

"Robusta is often overlooked because of its traditionally unfavorable cupping quality, which traces directly to the way it is processed," says the institute, which certifies Q graders, the coffee equivalent of wine's master sommeliers. "But what if it is processed properly? The impact could be huge on not only the farmers producing it, but every party in the supply chain."

Slow start

One company in particular has been an "ambassador" for robusta, Nielsen said.

New York-based Nguyen Coffee Supply sources beans from Vietnam, which grows more robusta than any other country, and proudly proclaims "100% Robusta" on its bags of "Truegrit" coffee.

"We at Nguyen Coffee Supply believe that robusta coffee is the future of specialty coffee," the company explains on its website. "When we started, we faced a lot of stigma and pushback from the industry around Vietnamese coffee and robusta beans specifically."

Copper Cow Coffee blends Vietnam-sourced robusta and arabica in pour-over packets that are available at Walmart and Whole Foods stores nationwide. Càphê Roasters in Philadelphia also brings in Vietnamese robusta and arabica for its espresso.

"We're seeing voices like that elevating the status of robusta and grounding it in a cultural space as well as a sustainability space," Nielsen said.

(The mix of coffee and sweetened condensed milk sold as Vietnamese coffee is also seeing its star rise, WGSN says.)

Few other specialty roasters have waded into robusta with any regularity.

Len's Coffee in Massachusetts, formerly known as Heirloom Coffee, carries a number of robusta brands. Death Wish Coffee gets its extra caffeine kick from robusta beans used in the New York company's blends. Greater Goods Coffee Co. in Austin, Texas, says robusta "is having a renaissance" and roasted a limited edition recently.

Meanwhile, Minneapolis has quietly been on the cutting edge of the trend for years.

"As far as roasting companies that buy specialty robusta, we've probably been doing it the longest," says Meza with Paradise Coffee Roasters, which has been roasting small batches of robusta for nearly 20 years and has released some of Coffee Review's highest-rated robustas.

"When we start applying more quality controls — actively experimenting and trying to improve it rather than accepting that what is now is all it can be — we start seeing some startlingly good coffees," Meza wrote about robusta in 2016. "Specialty coffee is a process. It's not a species, nor an elevation, nor a particular growing location."

Other coffee species, such as liberica, could also gain popularity as roasters become more open to and familiar with non-arabica beans — whether by choice or by necessity.

"Things happen when they have to," Meza said. "It could be a necessary future for coffee."