Just 10% of the ViaSat-3 F1 satellite’s planned capacity will be available, the company has confirmed. Still, that should leave the satellite as one of the highest capacity systems in orbit, enough that Viasat “remains confident that it will meet the current and future needs of its mobility customers.” A replacement satellite will not be required.
The company will file a $420 million insurance claim for the failed system, as well as an additional $348 million claim for the failed I6 F2 satellite it inherited as part of the Inmarsat acquisition. Both claims are expected to be filed by the end of 2023.
Beyond mobility?
Viasat cites “the flexibility and agility of its integrated satellite fleet,” along with future planned satellites and third party capacity as key to supporting its growing capacity demand. The company also specifically called out support for mobility customers, rather than its entire portfolio. Mobility is expected to drive growth, but at what cost?
Previously Viasat noted it would “borrow” from its terrestrial capacity in the Americas to support its inflight connectivity demands. Eventually one might assume that the company will run out of that capacity to borrow against, at least if it wants to remain in the terrestrial connectivity business. Perhaps the 100 Gbps of available capacity on V3 F1 is sufficient to bridge that gap? Or to deliver for the commercial aero market, allowing the older satellites to handle demand from the ground?
Read more: Viasat doubles down on interoperability to address short, mid-term capacity challenges
While the company declines to offer details on how broadly the V3 F1 capacity will be deployed (ie coverage footprint) or what capacity density will be achieved from the satellite, a spokesman says “Viasat’s current fleet of satellites has the capacity to continue serving its residential customers in addition to serving the growing needs of its mobility customers.”
The company also says it is working on “replacement of capabilities” for the I6 F2 satellite which failed. Unlike with V3 F1, Viasat has not ruled out launching a replacement satellite for that set of services. Notably, Viasat must replace the L-band services I6 F2 was slated to provide. Alternate capacity on orbit today is minimal.
When to launch again?
Viasat also notes that it “continues to work with our partners to collect data and incorporate that into the deployment fault analysis.” One unconfirmed version of that data collection story suggests that the V3 F2 (EMEA) satellite suffered the same deployment problem of the reflector, albeit while still on the ground. This would require replacement of that hardware on the satellite and associated testing before it can be launched.
Viasat declined to comment on that report as “rumor or speculation.” The company also declined to provide an update on expected launch timings, noting such details will be shared “in due time.”
Insurance fallout
With more than $750 million in claims being filed by a single company this year, one has to wonder about the future of the satellite launch insurance market. With relatively low numbers of GEO launches happening the ability to spread future risk is limited. And the ever increasing costs of the satellites means much larger potential payouts.
Will insurance providers be able to underwrite future launches at rates affordable to the satellite owners? Or does this force satellite operators to more aggressively consider smaller (and cheaper) options on orbit? At least when those fail they don’t cost hundreds of millions to replace.
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