Team Offense, Detroit Tigers

The 2024 series on team offense continues with the Detroit Tigers. The Tigers finished twenty eighth in the Majors and thirteenth in the American League in 2023 with 4.08 runs scored per game.

This season I am using FanGraphs Roster Resource Depth Charts* as the source of default lineups. That A.J. Hinch batting order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):

Best lineup: 4.63
Probable lineup: 4.53
Worst lineup: 4.38
Regressed lineup: 4.30

The Tigers appear to be a team in transition. The default lineup starts five players yet to reach the peak age of 27, four of those below the prime years of seasonal age 25-29. The rest of the team consists of veterans who are mostly placeholders. Note that the youngsters fill out the top of the order, and the Tigers expect them to lead the offense.

One of the odder decisions involves rookie Parker Meadows, inserted into the leadoff slot. He only showed the ability to get on base at a high rate in the low minors. His power numbers were good at AA and AAA, so he seems miscast in the role of leadoff. There is a lot of uncertainty here, but I suspect his speed is the reason he’s batting first. The LAT prefers Riley Greene in the slot, but a few of the top lineups do put Meadows first.

All in all, the LAT mostly agrees with the grouping of the top of the order. The bottom of the order is a bit odd, also as the worst projected hitter, Javier Baez, bats seventh, not eighth. Maybe the Tigers want two better OBPS in front of Meadows to take advantage of his power?

Young players give the Tigers plenty of upside here. We’ll see if that’s enough to give them a boost to a top division offense.

You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.

Previous posts in this series:

*This is the best source of roster information I’ve seen, with everything on one page.

March 13, 2024

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