Welcome
143rd issue.
This week's articles discuss various aspects of football, from rating models in college football playoffs and NFL draft class reviews to the significance of central space battles and data-driven insights in modern tactics, with an update on the Championship table based on Opta's expected points model providing insights into teams' performances beyond their actual points tally.
Cheers!
This Week's Lineup
[paper] An analysis of the NCAA college football playoff team selections using an Elo ratings model
The paper investigates the controversial exclusion of the Florida State Seminoles from the College Football Playoff despite their undefeated season in 2023, employing Elo ratings to demonstrate that the selection committee's decision was justified, advocating for the implementation of a more transparent ratings model in future playoff selections.
Reviewing Our Grades for the 2021 NFL Draft Class
Using Total Points Score (TP Score), the Chiefs emerge as the top-ranked team three years later, showcasing the evolution of initial draft rankings compared to long-term player performance.
Winning the centre – football's most important battle
Emphasizes the critical importance of winning the battle for central space in football, highlighting how teams' ability to control this area influences their tactical effectiveness, problem-solving skills, and overall success on the pitch, with various strategies discussed to either limit or exploit central space, ultimately shaping the outcome of matches.
How Football Is Changing
Explores the evolving landscape of football tactics and strategies, delving into shifts in set-piece executions, passing patterns, headers, and dribbling tendencies, revealing a departure from traditional approaches and a reliance on data-driven insights to navigate the modern game effectively.
How Does Opta’s Expected Points Model Differ from the Real Championship Table?
Provides an update on the 2023-24 Championship table based on Opta's expected points model, offering insights into how teams are performing beyond their actual points tally, with Leeds United leading in the model despite Leicester City's overperformance, shedding light on the potential outcome of the season and the historic battle for promotion to the Premier League.
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Unexpected Points Added is curated and maintained by Patrick Hayes.
I completed a Master of Applied Data Science from the University of Michigan; let's connect.
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