A longtime VC on the virtues of not swinging for the fences

Comment

Image Credits:

There’s a winner-take-all mentality in Silicon Valley. Unfortunately, it has distorted the thinking of countless entrepreneurs who’d likely be better off running smaller companies — and giving up less ownership to investors in the process. While funding announcements are widely celebrated as milestones, the reality is that founders often wind up with far less than their investors, and in plenty of cases, they can sell a company and make almost no money at all.

It’s a point that longtime VC Jodi Sherman Jahic was eager to make recently when we met up for coffee in San Francisco. In fact, Jahic — who cofounded the venture firm Aligned Partners with Susan Mason (who previously spent 15 years with Onset Ventures) — focuses exclusively on enterprise companies that are ruthlessly focused on capital efficiency and whose founders will turn away  bigger checks, knowing they could be shooting themselves in the foot otherwise.

More from our chat follows, edited for length.

TC: You were a Kauffman Fellow, then spent something like seven years as a principal at Voyager Capital. Why start your own firm?

JJ: At the time, we were managing a $200 million fund, and [by 2007, 2008] I started to think that even that might be too much for some companies. With $200 million, you’re probably investing in 20 companies, committing up to $10 million in each, and at that level of risk, you’re likely to syndicate each deal. So, if every company can’t take at least $20 million and usually quite a bit more, then it’s probably not that interesting [to the $200 million fund]. And the problem gets larger as the fund gets larger.

TC: Did you see that a lot?

JJ: Absolutely. When a company is doing just fine, everyone wants to put their money into it, which is ironic because it only generates less cash-on-cash returns for everyone. Also, the venture world tells us this story that one-third of venture-backed companies will become an abject loss and one-third will go sideways and one-third will be hits. So founders reason that two-thirds of the time, they’ll be fine. But that’s not what happens. The majority of the time — something like 75 percent of the time, according to [the benchmarking company] Sand Hill Econometrics — founders who take venture money get not a dime. And the venture industry has made it worse by taking some opportunities that could be more efficient and generate returns for everybody and turning them into lets-swing-for-the-fences types of things. And not every company is going to grow up to be that.

People don’t realize this, but there is zero correlation between how much money goes into a company and its exit value.

TC: You struck out on your own years ago, when it was even harder for a woman to form a venture fund than today. How did you get things rolling?

JJ: I started with a pledge fund, with investors who’d invested alongside me in a wireless company that I’d backed in 2000. The company raised just $1 million but wound up producing a 7x return for us, so these investors committed a certain amount of capital and pledged that money on deal-by-deal basis.

To be honest, I’d just had my second kid. I wasn’t sure about fundraising. But this pledge fund idea turned out spectacularly. We invested in a total of seven companies, including AirLink Communications and Purple Wave Auction and almost all have exited or are cash-flow even and doing really well. We had just one loss.

TC: As you and Susan were forming your firm in 2011, the micro VC scene was beginning to explode. How has all that competition impacted your work?

JJ: I don’t see those firms as direct competitors.

TC: But you raised a $30 million debut fund in 2012, and a $50 million fund last year. Doesn’t that pit you directly against a lot of other firms that have raised similar amounts?

JJ: Most seed-stage funds spread their capital pretty thinly, making $500,000 bets on a large number of companies. I think it’s probably standard to invest in 20 to 30 companies. We don’t do that. We invest in $2 million to $5 million over the life of a company, we always take a board seat, and we lead. We feel like you need to do these things if you want to direct the course of an investment.

TC: So you’re competing with Series A investors. That sounds even harder, given that many have giant funds that they are investing across stages.

JJ: Actually, as you know, the late-stage market has been supported by an enormous amount of non-venture dollars, and as we’re seeing some of that money flee, we’re also seeing some the larger multi-stage firms focus on their high-burn portfolio companies and less on funding Series A and B companies.

TC: What do you need to see in terms of metrics?

JJ: A company has to have initial customers  who we can call and understand why they bought. That’s usually less than a million dollars in total revenue when we come in.

TC: And what are you looking for in a team?

JJ: Capital efficiency is our core thesis. These are companies in the enterprise space that, by virtue of their go-to-market strategies, are unlikely to need more than $10 million. Also, our typical founder has started a few companies before. In fact, maybe [he or she] has sold a company for a substantial exit but got a nice lucite trophy and a thank you note but didn’t get wealthy because of their company’s cap structure. Those are the people who come to us, saying, “I want to do it differently this time; I don’t want to overstuff my company with excess capital.”

TC: You were working as a VC back in 2000, when the last bubble burst. Do you agree with a lot of other investors who think that despite these go-go times, things are different?

JJ. I do. I think we’re seeing many higher-quality companies than we did then. Many fewer venture-backed companies have gone public, too, and on the private market, it takes time for pricing to fall, whereas when you’re public and the market falls out, people leave in droves. So I don’t think we’ll see a bubble popping like we did in 2000 and 2001.

Still, I think that because of the vividness of unicorns and exits like that of WhatsApp, a lot of founders and investors overestimate the likelihood of a big exit.

I push back on a lot of that power law stuff; it can be an excuse for bad behavior and stupid valuations. If you have to hit outliers to make your nut, you have to do crazy things. If we set things up to see achievable exits, everybody will do better.

More TechCrunch

The deck included some redacted numbers, but there was still enough data to get a good picture.

Pitch Deck Teardown: Cloudsmith’s $15M Series A deck

The company is describing the event as “a chance to demo some ChatGPT and GPT-4 updates.”

OpenAI’s ChatGPT announcement: What we know so far

Unlike ChatGPT, Claude did not become a new App Store hit.

Anthropic’s Claude sees tepid reception on iOS compared with ChatGPT’s debut

Welcome to Startups Weekly — Haje‘s weekly recap of everything you can’t miss from the world of startups. Sign up here to get it in your inbox every Friday. Look,…

Startups Weekly: Trouble in EV land and Peloton is circling the drain

Scarcely five months after its founding, hard tech startup Layup Parts has landed a $9 million round of financing led by Founders Fund to transform composites manufacturing. Lux Capital and Haystack…

Founders Fund leads financing of composites startup Layup Parts

AI startup Anthropic is changing its policies to allow minors to use its generative AI systems — in certain circumstances, at least.  Announced in a post on the company’s official…

Anthropic now lets kids use its AI tech — within limits

Zeekr’s market hype is noteworthy and may indicate that investors see value in the high-quality, low-price offerings of Chinese automakers.

The buzziest EV IPO of the year is a Chinese automaker

Venture capital has been hit hard by souring macroeconomic conditions over the past few years and it’s not yet clear how the market downturn affected VC fund performance. But recent…

VC fund performance is down sharply — but it may have already hit its lowest point

The person who claims to have 49 million Dell customer records told TechCrunch that he brute-forced an online company portal and scraped customer data, including physical addresses, directly from Dell’s…

Threat actor says he scraped 49M Dell customer addresses before the company found out

The social network has announced an updated version of its app that lets you offer feedback about its algorithmic feed so you can better customize it.

Bluesky now lets you personalize main Discover feed using new controls

Microsoft will launch its own mobile game store in July, the company announced at the Bloomberg Technology Summit on Thursday. Xbox president Sarah Bond shared that the company plans to…

Microsoft is launching its mobile game store in July

Smart ring maker Oura is launching two new features focused on heart health, the company announced on Friday. The first claims to help users get an idea of their cardiovascular…

Oura launches two new heart health features

Keeping up with an industry as fast-moving as AI is a tall order. So until an AI can do it for you, here’s a handy roundup of recent stories in the world…

This Week in AI: OpenAI considers allowing AI porn

Garena is quietly developing new India-themed games even though Free Fire, its biggest title, has still not made a comeback to the country.

Garena is quietly making India-themed games even as Free Fire’s relaunch remains doubtful

The U.S.’ NHTSA has opened a fourth investigation into the Fisker Ocean SUV, spurred by multiple claims of “inadvertent Automatic Emergency Braking.”

Fisker Ocean faces fourth federal safety probe

CoreWeave has formally opened an office in London that will serve as its European headquarters and home to two new data centers.

CoreWeave, a $19B AI compute provider, opens European HQ in London with plans for 2 UK data centers

The Series C funding, which brings its total raise to around $95 million, will go toward mass production of the startup’s inaugural products

AI chip startup DEEPX secures $80M Series C at a $529M valuation 

A dust-up between Evolve Bank & Trust, Mercury and Synapse has led TabaPay to abandon its acquisition plans of troubled banking-as-a-service startup Synapse.

Infighting among fintech players has caused TabaPay to ‘pull out’ from buying bankrupt Synapse

The problem is not the media, but the message.

Apple’s ‘Crush’ ad is disgusting

The Twitter for Android client was “a demo app that Google had created and gave to us,” says Particle co-founder and ex-Twitter employee Sara Beykpour.

Google built some of the first social apps for Android, including Twitter and others

WhatsApp is updating its mobile apps for a fresh and more streamlined look, while also introducing a new “darker dark mode,” the company announced on Thursday. The messaging app says…

WhatsApp’s latest update streamlines navigation and adds a ‘darker dark mode’

Plinky lets you solve the problem of saving and organizing links from anywhere with a focus on simplicity and customization.

Plinky is an app for you to collect and organize links easily

The keynote kicks off at 10 a.m. PT on Tuesday and will offer glimpses into the latest versions of Android, Wear OS and Android TV.

Google I/O 2024: How to watch

For cancer patients, medicines administered in clinical trials can help save or extend lives. But despite thousands of trials in the United States each year, only 3% to 5% of…

Triomics raises $15M Series A to automate cancer clinical trials matching

Welcome back to TechCrunch Mobility — your central hub for news and insights on the future of transportation. Sign up here for free — just click TechCrunch Mobility! Tap, tap.…

Tesla drives Luminar lidar sales and Motional pauses robotaxi plans

The newly announced “Public Content Policy” will now join Reddit’s existing privacy policy and content policy to guide how Reddit’s data is being accessed and used by commercial entities and…

Reddit locks down its public data in new content policy, says use now requires a contract

Eva Ho plans to step away from her position as general partner at Fika Ventures, the Los Angeles-based seed firm she co-founded in 2016. Fika told LPs of Ho’s intention…

Fika Ventures co-founder Eva Ho will step back from the firm after its current fund is deployed

In a post on Werner Vogels’ personal blog, he details Distill, an open-source app he built to transcribe and summarize conference calls.

Amazon’s CTO built a meeting-summarizing app for some reason

Paris-based Mistral AI, a startup working on open source large language models — the building block for generative AI services — has been raising money at a $6 billion valuation,…

Sources: Mistral AI raising at a $6B valuation, SoftBank ‘not in’ but DST is

You can expect plenty of AI, but probably not a lot of hardware.

Google I/O 2024: What to expect