There are very few absolutes in baseball, but we can mostly agree that higher fastball velocity is good. It’s so obvious a point that general managers are out here admitting it on the record. Fastball velocity is one of the first things scouts and organizations mention when evaluating a pitcher and putting together a staff. It’s thought of as the best indicator of future success. There’s oft-replicated research that connects weighted ball usage with added velocity; a type of training that has become popular in the pitching labs sprouting up around the league as teams and players seek to achieve higher speeds. Knowing all this, it seems like we should be able to determine which teams are the best, and which the worst, at developing velocity.
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The reality is that it’s tougher than you think. You can’t just look at which teams have the most velocity now. The Padres, Mets and Reds have some homegrown pitchers who contributed to their top three status by miles per hour last season, but they also have tons of acquired talent that was developed in other organizations. (It’s worth noting that the Mets and Reds remain in the top three dating back to the last full season in 2019, too.) The best approach would use minor-league data to track every pitcher as they progressed through the different levels, but that sort of information isn’t publicly available and organizationally kept pretty close to the vest.
What you can do is look through all of the starting pitchers to debut in the past three seasons, link them to their draft day reported velocities, and try to see if something emerges.
This list considered only pitchers who averaged at least three innings per game in their debut season, because pitchers throw harder in shorter bursts and the relationship between starting and relieving velocity is inconsistent. (For example, look at Drew Pomeranz gaining 4 miles per hour going to the pen, versus Josh Tomlin gaining at most a single tick.) The ideal data point, though, would be a starting pitcher who was drafted and debuted with the same team, and for those — as you can see below — the sample is tiny, making it difficult to draw any sweeping conclusions.
| Team | SP Drafted | Drafted Velo Gain | SP Stayed | Stayed Velo Gain |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5
|
3.8
|
2
|
5
|
|
|
6
|
3.6
|
1
|
1.2
|
|
|
7
|
2.4
|
4
|
3.4
|
|
|
7
|
2.2
|
4
|
3.7
|
|
|
5
|
2.2
|
2
|
2.7
|
|
|
5
|
2.1
|
2
|
2.0
|
|
|
3
|
2.1
|
3
|
2.1
|
|
|
4
|
2.1
|
2
|
2.5
|
|
|
4
|
1.9
|
1
|
1.6
|
|
|
3
|
1.9
|
1
|
1.6
|
|
|
6
|
1.8
|
0
|
|
|
|
3
|
1.8
|
1
|
2.0
|
|
|
8
|
1.8
|
4
|
2.2
|
|
|
8
|
1.7
|
4
|
1.7
|
|
|
3
|
1.6
|
1
|
2.1
|
|
|
2
|
1.5
|
0
|
|
|
|
8
|
1.5
|
1
|
4.1
|
|
|
4
|
1.3
|
0
|
|
|
|
8
|
1.3
|
2
|
0.2
|
|
|
6
|
1.1
|
1
|
1.4
|
|
|
4
|
1.1
|
1
|
1.4
|
|
|
6
|
1.0
|
4
|
1.5
|
|
|
9
|
0.9
|
2
|
1.0
|
|
|
3
|
0.9
|
1
|
-1.6
|
|
|
8
|
0.8
|
3
|
0.2
|
|
|
2
|
0.3
|
1
|
-0.1
|
|
|
3
|
0.3
|
1
|
-0.1
|
|
|
7
|
0.0
|
1
|
0.4
|
|
|
5
|
-0.2
|
5
|
-0.2
|
|
|
2
|
-1.2
|
1
|
-1.4
|
One simple chart isn’t enough. There are some important variables, most notably that baseball is coming off a 60-game season that made it tough to evaluate and develop players. This list above also doesn’t include starters signed in ways other than the amateur draft.
There are numerous important factors to keep in mind when discussing these results: regime changes within an organization during the time period studied; survivorship bias; organizational depth that could limit upward mobility and increase the likelihood of trades, just to name a few. So, to say the Brewers have the best velocity development in baseball based off of five major-league pitchers, only two of whom stayed within the organization from draft day to the major leagues, would be pushing it.
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Still, there are things to glean from this list, which The Athletic shared with several analysts, coaches and scouts within the game.
“The Brewers does not surprise me one bit that they are No. 1,” said one veteran scout, adding that, beyond the homegrown list, Milwaukee has had success in increasing velocity with reliever Devin Williams and has a track record of finding and improving pitchers from the independent league. The White Sox, “are the most old-school team in baseball,” leaving this scout equally unsurprised that they ranked at the bottom of the list.
Multiple people mentioned the White Sox, Royals and Nationals as teams that have been the slowest to change their pitching development process, with only Kansas City in the top half of this velo-added list. Washington has struggled to develop pitching internally, with Stephen Strasburg — a No. 1 overall pick who flew through the minor leagues — a notable exception and one who didn’t really require much actual development. A source told The Athletic that an internal audit within the organization, done over a longer period of time, put them much lower on a list like this one.
“When you crunched all the numbers, they were horrible in terms of velocity development,” he said. “Pretty much the worst in baseball.”
Drafting, though, is an important caveat here as the list above skews toward high school pitchers. High school draftees have the most to gain, but also the most to lose. One player development executive pointed to a study they’d seen that showed that the average high school pitcher loses 2 to 4 miles per hour on average — but the ones who make it to the big leagues will be the ones who gained a ton of velocity.
“No high school pitcher that loses 4 mph will make the show,” they pointed out.
“If you’re drafting the wrong arms, that’s as big a problem as your development crew’s inability to develop velocity,” added another source, saying that a fuller study would have to look at scouting and developing hand in hand.
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Without comprehensive minor-league data, though, for the moment you’re just looking at the survivors, the ones who made the big leagues. Another executive noted that he’s seen more minor-league data, and the ranges between the best and worst teams are much closer.
“Ranges of velocity matter, too. 88 mph guys gain velocity more often than 98 mph guys, for example,” he said. “Velo thresholds are very interesting.”
For example, a team that made a bet on some lighter-throwing pitchers with good command and then added a few ticks would show well on this list. That probably helps describe a team like the Indians, who have developed pitchers with good command who throw harder than you’d expect in the last few years. It’s their brand around baseball, with reigning Cy Young winner Shane Bieber as the best-case scenario utilizing this strategy.
One revelation recently in a public study performed by now-Twins analyst Ethan Moore about the best stuff in baseball was that vertical movement was more important than velocity when it came to certain pitches. One executive pointed to that sort of research when he perused the list.
“Astros were higher on our list,” they said. “It matters how you value velocity and movement, and that’s very different from team to team.”
Multiple sources confirmed that the Dodgers, Reds, Mariners and Astros were showing some ability to move the shape and velocity of their minor-league pitchers — even if the scope and scale might be less than a leaderboard like this one might lead you to believe — and also that the Brewers seem to value movement differently than others. If you combine the Brewers’ showing on this velocity list with that belief, you can maybe start to say that they’ve got an interesting pitching development program that has gained some appreciation around the league.
Look at Brandon Woodruff as the brand ambassador in this case: He doesn’t have great ride on his fastball, but last year it sat at 97 and the closest pitch comp among starting pitchers comes from Jacob deGrom. Oh, and according to Baseball America, Woodruff sat 88 to 92 mph on his fastball as a starter at Mississippi State!
We mentioned regime changes as a potential confounding factor earlier and even beyond that, teams are changing their development structures and personnel so rapidly that even a three-year study may be too dated as organizations take advantage of an area with no spending restrictions.
Coordinator salaries are rising, and every new front office comes with a plan to revamp player development and infuse it with the best data and tech. The Reds recently hired Kyle Boddy from Driveline Baseball and then restocked their coaching ranks. The Orioles, previously woefully behind in analytics and data, have had a similar organizational overhaul since general manager Mike Elias took over after the 2018 season.
Take the Blue Jays, who don’t show well on the list above. Since the end of the 2018 season, Toronto:
- Made sure all affiliates and complexes had the best tech available
- Updated their throwing programs and began tracking them centrally
- Updated the relationship between research and development analysts and coaches
- Began a specific velocity camp in October
- Debuted a totally revamped $100 million player development complex
- Hired their first player development specific analyst, Evan Short
- Hired Matt Buschmann as their first director of pitching development
- Hired Cory Popham (now pitching programs coordinator) and Matt Tracy (now pitching analysis coordinator) to new roles
A pitcher to watch who could be a product of the Blue Jays’ new system — though he was drafted by the Cubs — is Thomas Hatch, who sat 89 to 94 in college with a slider as his primary out pitch and sat 96 last year (as a reliever) with a changeup he used more than any other secondary offering. He, as well as the hard-throwing Nate Pearson and Julian Merryweather, would at least be more relevant to the current state of velocity development within the organization than those who came before.
#BlueJays Nate Pearson opens with five fastballs.
98.6 mph to 99.9 mph
— Keegan Matheson (@KeeganMatheson) March 1, 2021
Pearson actually represents yet another confounding factor when you study this sort of thing: outside influences. Independent pitching labs like Driveline have proliferated throughout the sport in recent years. Pearson has been working with Casey Mulholland at KineticPro, a private player development facility, making it nearly impossible to differentiate any improvements between his work with Mullholland and advances he might have made with the Blue Jays.
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“When he came to us, I thought, ‘What can I do for Nate to help him out? He already throws 103 mph!’” Mulholland said. “Understanding how the body works, when someone that is training to run a marathon, you build mile to mile until you’re ready for the marathon. We need to look at movement and mechanics, but instead of trying to gain that last 1 percent in velo, it’s more about when and how much to throw to get ready for the marathon, in this case the season.”
That’s one example of dozens. Certain organizations will send their players to offseason facilities to gain strength and velocity only to watch it fall apart due to their own sub-par development structure. Others are skeptical of letting players use or consult independent resources in-season because they don’t want them to “get the credit” for fixing guys. Several teams in the top half of this list were scoffed at for seeming like they had any role in creating and sustaining velocity.
“The private sector is doing a lot of work to make underwhelming MLB player development programs look smart,” one baseball person said.
Of course, that’s not just a velocity problem. The emphasis for guys who throw 100-plus like Pearson won’t be on adding velocity but in being able to handle a big-league workload. Driveline founder Kyle Boddy, who was hired by the Reds, has made it no secret the priority there is spin rate. How do you layer that into a pure velocity chart?
Even with all of the data teams have access to, it’s difficult to tease out value on this level.
“I’ve tried to tackle this question before,” laughed one team’s analyst about trying to figure out which teams are successful at adding velo. “It hasn’t always been fruitful, even with scouting reports and more and better data.”
It’s not easy to nail any of this down. Think about this simple question that arises by taking a look at the Indians versus the Dodgers. Is it better to take some command-first high-80s pitchers and coach them up to the mid-90s — which would look like a great result by any velocity-adding metric? Or would you rather start with great stuff and find a way to build up their stamina so they can maintain that velocity for a full season? Would you rather try to make more Shane Biebers or more Walker Buehlers? Which goal is more replicable? And what are the correct steps to get there?
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Every question leads to more questions. It’s interesting to try to figure out which teams add the most velo, but then it becomes obvious that the secondary concerns are paramount: Did those teams pick the right pitchers in the first place? How fast did these pitchers throw before? How often did they throw that fast, and for how long? How will training to throw harder change their command and health outcomes?
Mulholland of KineticPro is among those trying to figure out exactly that and more, with flushed out, robust reams of data on their players.
“We’re pretty close to being able to pull in strength conditioning outputs, range of motion screening, data from readiness and strength in the shoulder, ProPlayAI limb movement numbers, Rapsodo data for velocity and pitch profiling, workload management metrics from the Motus sleeve, and data on stress and sleep and environmental effects, putting it all together and getting closer to figuring out where all the benefits come from,” he said. “How do we best develop performance across the board?”
But it’s not there yet. For now, we know that velocity is important, but it’s not the only indicator for future big-league success. Still, the teams that continue to churn out big-league ready arms have excelled at either creating velocity or maintaining it while adding movement. In a sport where stagnation is the enemy, speed is still very much in demand even if we can’t completely decipher where it comes from and who is responsible for it.
(Top photo of the Milwaukee Brewers’ Josh Hader: Jonathan Daniel / Getty Images)