Andrew talks through practical ways to think in probabilities to make better decisions in SEO at BrightonSEO.
From methodologies to help you increase the chances of successful outcomes, to reframing decisions as bets to prioritise your recommendations.
2. SEOs are no better than
a coin toss at predicting
SEO performance.
@bertiecharlton
3. SEOs are also no better at predicting which of
two pages should rank for a keyword.
@bertiecharlton
PAGE 1?
PAGE 2?
https://moz.com/blog/can-you-guess-which-page-ranks-better
4. SEOs are also no better at predicting which of
two pages should rank for a keyword.
@bertiecharlton
PAGE 1?
https://moz.com/blog/can-you-guess-which-page-ranks-better
PAGE 2?
46%
8. SEOs who think
probabilistically, can:
@bertiecharlton
Estimate their impact on performance
Make more of the right decisions
Create strategies that balance risk/reward
Communicate uncertainty
11. How many piano tuners are there in Chicago?
@bertiecharlton
# of Pianos in
Chicago.
How often
pianos are
tuned.
How long it
takes to tune
a piano.
# of hours per
year a piano
tuner works.
12. How many piano tuners are there in Chicago?
@bertiecharlton
# of people in
Chicago?
% of people that
own a piano?
1.5m 3m
2.5m
2 in 100? (guesstimate)
# of Pianos in
Chicago.
50,000
13. Example: our client provides meeting
room spaces across the UK.
@bertiecharlton
“How much organic
traffic could we attract
by focusing on
coworking spaces in
all of our locations?”
Est. organic traffic per
local landing page.
# of local landing
pages.
14. @bertiecharlton
“How much organic
traffic could we attract
by focusing on
coworking spaces in
all of our locations?”
Est. organic traffic per
local landing page
# of local landing
pages
Est. CTR
Avg. search volume
Est. competitor traffic
Example: our client provides meeting
room spaces across the UK.
22. “Should we focus on the coworking space
or expand internationally in the US?”
@bertiecharlton
50%
50%
790
507
70%
30%
Coworking
space
US expansion
Upper estimate (750)
Lower estimate (264)
Upper estimate (1,000)
Lower estimate (300)
23. Can you test
this?
Have others done
this before?
Have you done
this before?
How do you improve your subjective
probabilities?
@bertiecharlton
Split-testing?
Partial rollout?
Same change
(this/others)?
Similar change
(this/others)?
Competitors?
Other sites?
Studies?
Confidence
25. SEO strategies
should be like an
investment portfolio.
@bertiecharlton
Digital PR
campaign
Website migration
Technical SEO fixes
26. Smaller bets can prove impact early and bridge
the trust gap between stakeholder or client.
@bertiecharlton
Added
canonical tags
Minor title
tag changes
XML sitemap
index
Category
Restructure
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
31. @bertiecharlton
“There’s a 95% probability
organic traffic will increase by
20-40% in the next 12 months.”
“We don’t have enough data to
provide an estimate. ”
32. Anchor your estimates with
business and market realities.
@bertiecharlton
Compare your estimates with market growth.
Control your unknowns.
Clarify your dependencies.