Lies, damned lies, and statistics

Opinion

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 22/10/2023 (211 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

The Winnipeg Police Service (WPS) has been defending its decision to move half of the Community Support Unit officers from the high crime areas of the inner-city North End and West End to patrol the downtown sports, hospitality and entertainment district (SHED). In justifying the move, to last a full year, the WPS has issued two sets of statistical references. The first indicates that the crime rate in the SHED district is higher than in the inner city.

Statistical analysis, utilizing police statistics, clearly show that Winnipeg’s North End has double the violent crime per capita as the downtown SHED district. Not only does the North End have double the violent crime rate of our downtown, it also has the highest crime rate of any neighbourhood in Canada. Something the Free Press editorial board should be focusing on.

Statistics Canada statistics provided by Kent Dueck, executive director of Inner City Youth Alive, show that Winnipeg’s North End has 4,173 violent crimes per 100,000 population. The downtown area has 2,260 violent crimes per 100,000.

The third and fourth areas of high crime in our city are West End areas Notre Dame (2,120) and Ellice (2,034).

Interestingly, the top four neighbourhoods in Canada for violent crime are in Manitoba.

Obviously, at some point someone pointed out to the WPS that their claim that crime was higher in the downtown than in the North End was erroneous so they provided the Free Press with a different statistical measure.

The Free Press editorial uses a misleading standard statistical methodology to try and justify moving crime prevention personnel out of the high crime areas. That is, identifying a higher percentage increase in crime in the downtown compared to the North End. A higher percentage increase does not mean a higher crime rate.

According to police statistics quoted in the editorial, the downtown had a 30 per cent increase in crime while the North End only had a 13 per cent increase.

This would mean that the North End now has 4,715 violent crimes per 100,000 population while the downtown has 2,938.

The Free Press photo beside the editorial says, “Moving more police to high-crime areas is a tactical move”.

If that’s the case, why isn’t the Winnipeg Police Service moving even more police from River Heights, Tuxedo and Linden Woods, some of the lowest crime areas, to the North End, West End and the downtown? It is unacceptable to pit the two areas of greatest need against each other when we have the resources of Winnipeg’s police force in its entirety to draw from.

The point of the concern about the movement of Community Support Units out of our highest crime areas to the downtown is not to protest the move of more police to the downtown. We desperately need strategies to reduce crime in both the North End and the downtown.

Utilizing our police officers in a more efficient and effective manner is a no brainer. Presently, on a Saturday afternoon or a Sunday, you can see police cruisers calmly driving around the south end of Winnipeg since the demand for response to 911 is so low at this time. Why aren’t they out tracking down the hundreds of outstanding arrest warrants that exist, mostly in the North End?

On a lovely Saturday morning earlier this year I encountered five WPS staff, three police officers on bicycles and two cadets, patrolling the St. Norbert Farmers’ Market, definitely the lowest crime area in Winnipeg.

The Free Press editorial is headlined, “Putting police where they are needed.” I totally agree.

Let’s put lots more police in the highest crime areas in Winnipeg — the North End, the downtown, Notre Dame and Ellice. However, the chair of the police board and other city councilors representing low crime areas might object.

Of course, to end Winnipeg having the highest crime rate in Canada, we need more than just a more efficient police pepartment. The Free Press editorial makes an off-hand comment implying that community leaders, probably referring to myself, wanted more recreation in place of police. At no time have I, or other community leaders concerned with our crime rate, suggested we need fewer police officers.

Most police officers that I talk to agree with me that we need a more efficient use of our police resources and more recreation.

There is absolutely no justification in stripping the highest crime areas of our city of 50 per cent of their police crime prevention complement. There are many non-criminal facing police staff that could be transferred to the downtown temporarily to supplement the existing police complement. The Free Press editorial, utilizing misleading statistics, actually supports lowering the police presence in the highest crime areas.

We must develop broad based, multi-faceted strategies to lower the crime rate in Winnipeg.

I, along with most Winnipeggers, am tired of living in the crime capital of Canada.

Smart allocation of police is one facet of lowering our crime rate.

Sel Burrows is a community activist and a member of the Order of Manitoba.