Apple Watch was a drill - It's official

At the launch of the Apple Watch I made a prediction that the product would not achieve the game changing predictions bestowed upon it by over zealous commentators and Apple zealots.

My predictions were not particularly 'courageous' to use Apple's own vocubulary, rather a simple logic based upon the fact that I nor anyone I spoke to could actually describe the value proposition of the Apple Watch.

There existed a strange unearthly belief that this didn't matter and that Apple can launch something while still trying to work out why it exists for just as long as it feels like and we'll still buy it.

"Don't worry about it lacking an insight" I was told repeatedly by the usual voices that believe technology creates needs that don't exist. "If anyone can make the smart watch relevant to the masses, Apple can!"

I have maintained my whole career that even the best, slickest and cleverest technology cannot overcome the lack of a value proposition. Anyone that has attended my training over the past 13 years will attest to the fact that this is the one point which I hold to be universal truth.

I even wrote about the Apple watch and my prediction that it would fail to deliver on its promises in my book 'The Seven Deadly Sins of Innovation', giving it centre stage as an example of sin number 1 - Pushing not Pulling.

You can read that whole section from my book below to see why I refer to the Apple Watch as a Drill.

The Apple Watch fits perfectly the sin of pushing not pulling and apart from those peculiar individuals who insist on queuing for days and spending their nights in sleeping bags outside the Apple store to buy whatever they are told to, most of us saw that the proposition was lacking.

The writing was on the wall when I went into an Apple store 6 months after launch and only 1/3 of the employees were wearing the product. What number would have been using the iPhone? A considerably higher percentage we can presume. If Apple can't even persuade it's own retail staff of the relevance of the Apple Watch what hope did it have in the mainstream?

You can read the whole case study from the 7 Deadly sins book here.

So how have things gone for the Apple Watch since I wrote all this 18 months ago?

The premium model has been scrapped, the whole positioning has been narrowed from a ubiquitous life changing wearable to a me-too sports watch competing in a mature commoditised market where well established brands compete at a third the price.

Volume for the Apple watch is down 71.6% vs year ago, suggesting that once the fanboys and early adopters ran out, Apple didn't have a story for the mainstream who actually demand some kind of relevance from their products.

And it was all so deeply predictable.

I think there could be a role for smart watches as long as the technology is appropriate, the price is proportionate to the value, the target is focused and the features are relevant. Until then the Apple watch remains the very eitome of a drill looking for a hole.

You can buy Mat Shore's book the Seven Deadly Sins of Innovation at www.Matshore.com